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U.S. House · All Hawaii races

Hawaii District 1

Solid D
Compare
Ed Case
Democratic · incumbent
100 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Adriel Lam
Republican
0 in 100

Ed Case wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Ed Case +47.2.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Case +47.3; 80 in 100 fall between Case +40.0 and Case +54.5.

Lam +30Lam +20Lam +10Case +10Case +20Case +30Tie

The candidates

Ed CaseIncumbent
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Adriel Lam
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Nathan Berning
Independent
Jordan Conley
Green

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Ed Case against Adriel Lam yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Case 100, Lam 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+13.0roughly 26 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record Case +8.0In 2024 they ran 15.9 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
IncumbencyCase +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateCase +47.3±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastCase +47.3±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Ed Case 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Ed Case 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Ed Case 100 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #291 of 421