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U.S. House · All Idaho races

Idaho District 1

Solid R
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Kaylee Peterson
Democratic
0 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Russ Fulcher
Republican · incumbent
100 in 100

Russ Fulcher wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Russ Fulcher +37.3.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Fulcher +37.3; 80 in 100 fall between Fulcher +44.7 and Fulcher +30.1.

Fulcher +30Fulcher +20Fulcher +10Peterson +10Peterson +20Peterson +30Tie

The candidates

Russ FulcherIncumbent
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Kaylee Peterson
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Brendan Gomez
Constitution
Sarah Zabel
Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Kaylee Peterson against Russ Fulcher yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Peterson 0, Fulcher 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+22.0roughly 44 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record Peterson +0.7In 2024 they ran 1.4 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
IncumbencyFulcher +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateFulcher +37.3±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastFulcher +37.3±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Kaylee Peterson 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Kaylee Peterson 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Kaylee Peterson 0 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #293 of 421