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U.S. House · open seat · All Illinois races

Illinois District 4

Solid D
Compare
Patty Garcia
Democratic
100 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Lupe Castillo
Republican
0 in 100

Patty Garcia wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

The polling average has Patty Garcia +19.3 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Patty Garcia +43.6. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Garcia +31.0; 80 in 100 fall between Garcia +26.1 and Garcia +36.0.

Castillo +30Castillo +20Castillo +10Garcia +10Garcia +20Garcia +30Tie

The candidates

Lupe Castillo
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Patty Garcia
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Chris Getty
Independent
Ed Hershey
Working Class

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

The polling average stands at Garcia +19.3 across 1 poll testing Patty Garcia against Lupe Castillo.

Garcia +2.1 since Aug 4, 2026
Castillo +30Castillo +20Castillo +10EvenGarcia +10Garcia +20Garcia +30Aug 9Aug 16Aug 23Aug 30Sep 6Sep 13Sep 20Sep 27Oct 4Oct 11Oct 18

Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.

PollsterDatesSampleResultAdjustedWeight
The Bullfinch Group
for The Independent Center
Jul 31–Aug 4653 RVGarcia +19.0Garcia +19.30.34

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Garcia 100, Castillo 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)Garcia +19.3±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+17.0roughly 34 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbencynoneopen seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimateGarcia +43.6±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastGarcia +31.0±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Patty Garcia >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Patty Garcia 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Patty Garcia 100 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent retiring

House races, closest first · this is #297 of 421