Mary MillerIncumbent
Republican
U.S. House · All Illinois races
Illinois District 15
Solid R
Jennifer Todd
Democratic
0 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Mary Miller
Republican · incumbent
100 in 100
Mary Miller wins in 100 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Mary Miller +34.0.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Miller +34.0; 80 in 100 fall between Miller +41.3 and Miller +26.7.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Jennifer Todd
Democratic
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
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Polls
No public polls have tested Jennifer Todd against Mary Miller yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Todd 0, Miller 100.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+20.0 | roughly 40 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Miller +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Miller +34.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Miller +34.0 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Jennifer Todd 0 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Jennifer Todd 0 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Jennifer Todd 0 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #303 of 421