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U.S. House · All Massachusetts races

Massachusetts District 8

Solid D
Compare
Stephen Lynch
Democratic · incumbent
100 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Robert Burke
Republican
0 in 100

Stephen Lynch wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Stephen Lynch +48.0.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Lynch +48.0; 80 in 100 fall between Lynch +40.8 and Lynch +55.3.

Burke +30Burke +20Burke +10Lynch +10Lynch +20Lynch +30Tie

The candidates

Robert Burke
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Stephen LynchIncumbent
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Rasheed Walters
Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Stephen Lynch against Robert Burke yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Lynch 100, Burke 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+15.0roughly 30 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record Lynch +4.8In 2024 they ran 9.5 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
IncumbencyLynch +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateLynch +48.0±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastLynch +48.0±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Stephen Lynch 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Stephen Lynch 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Stephen Lynch 100 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #328 of 421