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U.S. House · All Mississippi races

Mississippi District 1

Solid R
Compare
Cliff Johnson
Democratic
0 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Trent Kelly
Republican · incumbent
100 in 100

Trent Kelly wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Trent Kelly +30.2.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Kelly +30.2; 80 in 100 fall between Kelly +37.4 and Kelly +22.9.

Kelly +30Kelly +20Kelly +10Johnson +10Johnson +20Johnson +30Tie

The candidates

Cliff Johnson
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Trent KellyIncumbent
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Johnny Baucom
Libertarian

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Cliff Johnson against Trent Kelly yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Johnson 0, Kelly 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+18.0roughly 36 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record Kelly +0.2In 2024 they ran 0.3 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
IncumbencyKelly +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateKelly +30.2±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastKelly +30.2±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Cliff Johnson 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Cliff Johnson 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Cliff Johnson 0 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #337 of 421