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U.S. House · All Nebraska races

Nebraska District 3

Solid R
Compare
Becky Stille
Democratic
0 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Adrian Smith
Republican · incumbent
100 in 100

Adrian Smith wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Adrian Smith +48.0.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Smith +48.0; 80 in 100 fall between Smith +55.3 and Smith +40.8.

Smith +30Smith +20Smith +10Stille +10Stille +20Stille +30Tie

The candidates

Adrian SmithIncumbent
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Becky Stille
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Macey Budke
Working People
Mark Cohen
Independent
David Else
Legal Marijuana Now

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Becky Stille against Adrian Smith yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Stille 0, Smith 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+27.0roughly 54 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencySmith +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateSmith +48.0±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastSmith +48.0±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Becky Stille 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Becky Stille 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Becky Stille 0 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #346 of 421