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U.S. House · open seat · All New York races

New York District 12

Solid D
Compare
Micah Lasher
Democratic
100 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Caroline Shinkle
Republican
0 in 100

Micah Lasher wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Micah Lasher +75.6.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Lasher +75.6; 80 in 100 fall between Lasher +68.3 and Lasher +82.9.

Shinkle +30Shinkle +20Shinkle +10Lasher +10Lasher +20Lasher +30Tie

The candidates

Micah Lasher
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Caroline Shinkle
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Wilneida Negron
Independent
Karen Ortiz
Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Micah Lasher against Caroline Shinkle yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Lasher 100, Shinkle 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+33.0roughly 66 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbencynoneopen seat or incumbent not on ballot
Fundamentals estimateLasher +75.6±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastLasher +75.6±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Micah Lasher 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Micah Lasher 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Micah Lasher 100 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent retiring

House races, closest first · this is #356 of 421