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U.S. House · All New York races

New York District 15

Solid D
Compare
Ritchie Torres
Democratic · incumbent
100 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Stylo Sapaskis
Republican
0 in 100

Ritchie Torres wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Ritchie Torres +67.5.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Torres +67.5; 80 in 100 fall between Torres +60.2 and Torres +74.8.

Sapaskis +30Sapaskis +20Sapaskis +10Torres +10Torres +20Torres +30Tie

The candidates

Stylo Sapaskis
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Ritchie TorresIncumbent
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Gonzalo Duran
Conservative
Andre Easton
Socialism and Liberation
Jose Vega
Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Ritchie Torres against Stylo Sapaskis yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Torres 100, Sapaskis 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+27.0roughly 54 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record Torres +0.3In 2024 they ran 0.5 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
IncumbencyTorres +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateTorres +67.5±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastTorres +67.5±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Ritchie Torres 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Ritchie Torres 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Ritchie Torres 100 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #359 of 421