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U.S. House · All South Carolina races

South Carolina District 3

Solid R
Compare
Eunice Lehmacher
Democratic
0 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Sheri Biggs
Republican · incumbent
100 in 100

Sheri Biggs wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Sheri Biggs +36.0.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Biggs +36.0; 80 in 100 fall between Biggs +43.4 and Biggs +28.8.

Biggs +30Biggs +20Biggs +10Lehmacher +10Lehmacher +20Lehmacher +30Tie

The candidates

Sheri BiggsIncumbent
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Eunice Lehmacher
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Brian Corriea
Libertarian

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Eunice Lehmacher against Sheri Biggs yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Lehmacher 0, Biggs 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+21.0roughly 42 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyBiggs +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateBiggs +36.0±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastBiggs +36.0±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Eunice Lehmacher 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Eunice Lehmacher 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Eunice Lehmacher 0 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #387 of 421