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U.S. House · All South Carolina races

South Carolina District 7

Solid R
Compare
John Vincent
Democratic
<1 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Russell Fry
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100

Russell Fry wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Russell Fry +20.5.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Fry +20.5; 80 in 100 fall between Fry +27.7 and Fry +13.2.

Fry +30Fry +20Fry +10Vincent +10Vincent +20Vincent +30Tie

The candidates

Russell FryIncumbent
Republican
Raised
$2.0M
Cash on hand
$160K
Through 2026-09-30
No biography on file yet.
John Vincent
Democratic
Raised
$573K
Cash on hand
$116K
Through 2026-09-30
No biography on file yet.

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested John Vincent against Russell Fry yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Vincent 0, Fry 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+12.0roughly 24 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record Fry +1.1In 2024 they ran 2.3 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
IncumbencyFry +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateFry +20.5±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastFry +20.5±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: John Vincent <1 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: John Vincent <1 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: John Vincent <1 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #176 of 421