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U.S. House · All Arkansas races

Arkansas District 1

Solid R
Compare
Terri Green
Democratic
0 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Rick Crawford
Republican · incumbent
100 in 100

Rick Crawford wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Rick Crawford +40.0.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Crawford +40.0; 80 in 100 fall between Crawford +47.3 and Crawford +32.7.

Crawford +30Crawford +20Crawford +10Green +10Green +20Green +30Tie

The candidates

Rick CrawfordIncumbent
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Terri Green
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Steve Parsons
Libertarian

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Terri Green against Rick Crawford yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Green 0, Crawford 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+23.0roughly 46 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record Green +0.0In 2024 they ran 0.0 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
IncumbencyCrawford +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateCrawford +40.0±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastCrawford +40.0±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Terri Green 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Terri Green 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Terri Green 0 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #252 of 421