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U.S. House · All Arkansas races

Arkansas District 4

Solid R
Compare
James Russell
Democratic
0 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Bruce Westerman
Republican · incumbent
100 in 100

Bruce Westerman wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Bruce Westerman +35.4.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Westerman +35.3; 80 in 100 fall between Westerman +42.6 and Westerman +28.1.

Westerman +30Westerman +20Westerman +10Russell +10Russell +20Russell +30Tie

The candidates

James Russell
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Bruce WestermanIncumbent
Republican
No biography on file yet.

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested James Russell against Bruce Westerman yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Russell 0, Westerman 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+20.0roughly 40 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record Westerman +1.3In 2024 they ran 2.7 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
IncumbencyWesterman +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateWesterman +35.4±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastWesterman +35.4±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: James Russell 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: James Russell 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: James Russell 0 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #253 of 421