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U.S. House · All Arizona races

Arizona District 9

Solid R
Compare
Dani Sterbinsky
Democratic
<1 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Paul Gosar
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100

Paul Gosar wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Paul Gosar +22.6.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Gosar +22.6; 80 in 100 fall between Gosar +29.9 and Gosar +15.3.

Gosar +30Gosar +20Gosar +10Sterbinsky +10Sterbinsky +20Sterbinsky +30Tie

The candidates

Paul GosarIncumbent
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Dani Sterbinsky
Democratic
No biography on file yet.

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Dani Sterbinsky against Paul Gosar yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Sterbinsky 0, Gosar 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+15.0roughly 30 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record Sterbinsky +1.4In 2024 they ran 2.9 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
IncumbencyGosar +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateGosar +22.6±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastGosar +22.6±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Dani Sterbinsky <1 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Dani Sterbinsky <1 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Dani Sterbinsky <1 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #202 of 421