Jim CostaIncumbent
Democratic
U.S. House · All California races
California District 21
Solid D
Jim Costa
Democratic · incumbent
>99 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Kyle Kirkland
Republican
<1 in 100
Jim Costa wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Jim Costa +23.3.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Costa +23.2; 80 in 100 fall between Costa +15.9 and Costa +30.5.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Kyle Kirkland
Republican
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
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Polls
No public polls have tested Jim Costa against Kyle Kirkland yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Costa 100, Kirkland 0.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+5.0 | roughly 10 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Costa +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Costa +23.3 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Costa +23.3 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Jim Costa >99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Jim Costa >99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Jim Costa >99 in 100 (Solid D)
Rules and notes
- Top-two primary state: the two general-election candidates can be from the same party.
- Incumbent advanced to general
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