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U.S. House · All California races

California District 27

Solid D
Compare
George Whitesides
Democratic · incumbent
>99 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Jason Gibbs
Republican
<1 in 100

George Whitesides wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to George Whitesides +25.3.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Whitesides +25.3; 80 in 100 fall between Whitesides +18.0 and Whitesides +32.5.

Gibbs +30Gibbs +20Gibbs +10Whitesides +10Whitesides +20Whitesides +30Tie

The candidates

Jason Gibbs
Republican
No biography on file yet.
George WhitesidesIncumbent
Democratic
No biography on file yet.

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested George Whitesides against Jason Gibbs yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Whitesides 100, Gibbs 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+6.0roughly 12 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyWhitesides +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateWhitesides +25.3±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastWhitesides +25.3±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: George Whitesides >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: George Whitesides >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: George Whitesides >99 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Top-two primary state: the two general-election candidates can be from the same party.
  • Incumbent advanced to general

House races, closest first · this is #207 of 421