Ricardo Cabrera
Republican
U.S. House · All California races
California District 51
Solid D
Sara Jacobs
Democratic · incumbent
100 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Ricardo Cabrera
Republican
0 in 100
Sara Jacobs wins in 100 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Sara Jacobs +33.3.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Jacobs +33.3; 80 in 100 fall between Jacobs +26.0 and Jacobs +40.6.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Sara JacobsIncumbent
Democratic
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
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Polls
No public polls have tested Sara Jacobs against Ricardo Cabrera yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Jacobs 100, Cabrera 0.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+10.0 | roughly 20 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Jacobs +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Jacobs +33.3 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Jacobs +33.3 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Sara Jacobs 100 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Sara Jacobs 100 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Sara Jacobs 100 in 100 (Solid D)
Rules and notes
- Top-two primary state: the two general-election candidates can be from the same party.
- Incumbent advanced to general
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