Melat Kiros
Democratic
U.S. House · open seat · All Colorado races
Colorado District 1
Solid D
Melat Kiros
Democratic
100 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Christy Peterson
Republican
0 in 100
Melat Kiros wins in 100 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Melat Kiros +67.6.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Kiros +67.6; 80 in 100 fall between Kiros +60.3 and Kiros +74.9.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Christy Peterson
Republican
Shimon Blau
Independent
Chad Humphrey
Libertarian
Critter Milton
Unity
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
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Polls
No public polls have tested Melat Kiros against Christy Peterson yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Kiros 100, Peterson 0.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+29.0 | roughly 58 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Kiros +67.6 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Kiros +67.6 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Melat Kiros 100 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Melat Kiros 100 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Melat Kiros 100 in 100 (Solid D)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent lost renomination
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