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U.S. House · All Connecticut races

Connecticut District 2

Solid D
Compare
Joe Courtney
Democratic · incumbent
>99 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
George Austin
Republican
<1 in 100

Joe Courtney wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Joe Courtney +24.1.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Courtney +24.1; 80 in 100 fall between Courtney +16.9 and Courtney +31.4.

Austin +30Austin +20Austin +10Courtney +10Courtney +20Courtney +30Tie

The candidates

George Austin
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Joe CourtneyIncumbent
Democratic
No biography on file yet.

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Joe Courtney against George Austin yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Courtney 100, Austin 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+4.0roughly 8 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record Courtney +2.8In 2024 they ran 5.7 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
IncumbencyCourtney +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateCourtney +24.1±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastCourtney +24.1±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Joe Courtney >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Joe Courtney >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Joe Courtney >99 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #216 of 421