Skip to content
Bellwether
LatestAll updates →
U.S. House · All Connecticut races

Connecticut District 3

Solid D
Compare
Rosa DeLauro
Democratic · incumbent
>99 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Chris Lancia
Republican
<1 in 100

Rosa DeLauro wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Rosa DeLauro +29.2.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin DeLauro +29.2; 80 in 100 fall between DeLauro +21.9 and DeLauro +36.4.

Lancia +30Lancia +20Lancia +10DeLauro +10DeLauro +20DeLauro +30Tie

The candidates

Rosa DeLauroIncumbent
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Chris Lancia
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Thomas Egan
Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Rosa DeLauro against Chris Lancia yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: DeLauro 100, Lancia 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+8.0roughly 16 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record Lancia +0.1In 2024 they ran 0.2 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
IncumbencyDeLauro +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateDeLauro +29.2±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastDeLauro +29.2±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Rosa DeLauro >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Rosa DeLauro >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Rosa DeLauro >99 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #217 of 421