Joseph Arminio
Republican
U.S. House · All Delaware races
Delaware at-large
Solid D
Sarah McBride
Democratic · incumbent
>99 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Joseph Arminio
Republican
<1 in 100
Sarah McBride wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Sarah McBride +29.3.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin McBride +29.2; 80 in 100 fall between McBride +22.0 and McBride +36.5.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Sarah McBrideIncumbent
Democratic
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
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Polls
No public polls have tested Sarah McBride against Joseph Arminio yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: McBride 100, Arminio 0.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+8.0 | roughly 16 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | McBride +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | McBride +29.3 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | McBride +29.3 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Sarah McBride >99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Sarah McBride >99 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Sarah McBride >99 in 100 (Solid D)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #218 of 421