Randy FineIncumbent
Republican
U.S. House · All Florida races
Florida District 6
Solid R
Eric Yonce
Democratic
<1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Randy Fine
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100
Randy Fine wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Randy Fine +22.0.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Fine +22.1; 80 in 100 fall between Fine +29.4 and Fine +14.8.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Eric Yonce
Democratic
Michael Gist
Independent
Andrew Parrott
Libertarian
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
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Polls
No public polls have tested Eric Yonce against Randy Fine yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Yonce 0, Fine 100.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+14.0 | roughly 28 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Fine +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Fine +22.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Fine +22.0 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Eric Yonce <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Eric Yonce <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Eric Yonce <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #219 of 421