Victor Arias
Democratic
Raised$70K
Cash on hand$15K
Through 2026-10-14
U.S. House · open seat · All Florida races
Florida District 19
Solid R
Victor Arias
Democratic
<1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Jim Schwartzel
Republican
>99 in 100
Jim Schwartzel wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Jim Schwartzel +20.9.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Schwartzel +20.9; 80 in 100 fall between Schwartzel +28.2 and Schwartzel +13.6.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Jim Schwartzel
Republican
Raised$2.8M
Cash on hand$539K
Through 2026-09-30
Seth Haskin
Independent
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
No public polls have tested Victor Arias against Jim Schwartzel yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Arias 0, Schwartzel 100.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+14.0 | roughly 28 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Schwartzel +20.9 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Schwartzel +20.9 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Victor Arias <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Victor Arias <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Victor Arias <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent retiring to run for governor
House races, closest first · this is #220 of 421