Skip to content
Bellwether
LatestAll updates →
U.S. House · All Connecticut races

Connecticut District 4

Solid D
Compare
Jim Himes
Democratic · incumbent
100 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Michael Goldstein
Republican
0 in 100

Jim Himes wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Jim Himes +37.3.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Himes +37.3; 80 in 100 fall between Himes +29.9 and Himes +44.6.

Goldstein +30Goldstein +20Goldstein +10Himes +10Himes +20Himes +30Tie

The candidates

Michael Goldstein
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Jim HimesIncumbent
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Benjamin Wesley
Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Jim Himes against Michael Goldstein yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Himes 100, Goldstein 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+13.0roughly 26 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record Goldstein +1.9In 2024 they ran 3.9 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
IncumbencyHimes +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateHimes +37.4±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastHimes +37.4±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Jim Himes 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Jim Himes 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Jim Himes 100 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #280 of 421