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U.S. House · All Florida races

Florida District 1

Solid R
Compare
Gay Valimont
Democratic
0 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Jimmy Patronis
Republican · incumbent
100 in 100

Jimmy Patronis wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Jimmy Patronis +30.0.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Patronis +30.0; 80 in 100 fall between Patronis +37.3 and Patronis +22.7.

Patronis +30Patronis +20Patronis +10Valimont +10Valimont +20Valimont +30Tie

The candidates

Jimmy PatronisIncumbent
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Gay Valimont
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Tyler Davis
Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Gay Valimont against Jimmy Patronis yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Valimont 0, Patronis 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+18.0roughly 36 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyPatronis +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimatePatronis +30.0±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastPatronis +30.0±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Gay Valimont 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Gay Valimont 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Gay Valimont 0 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #281 of 421