James Martin
Democratic
Raised$773K
Cash on hand$83K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Florida races
Florida District 21
Solid R
James Martin
Democratic
4 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Brian Mast
Republican · incumbent
96 in 100
Brian Mast wins in 96 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Brian Mast +10.0.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Mast +10.0; 80 in 100 fall between Mast +17.3 and Mast +2.8.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Brian MastIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1980)
Brian Jeffrey Mast is an American politician and veteran serving as the U.S. representative for Florida's 21st congressional district since 2017. The district, numbered as the 18th district before the 2020 redistricting cycle, includes the Treasure Coast and northern portions of Palm Beach County. Wikipedia
Raised$4.9M
Cash on hand$2.9M
Through 2026-09-30
Alexander Cooke
Independent
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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Polls
No public polls have tested James Martin against Brian Mast yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Martin 4, Mast 96.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+7.0 | roughly 14 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Mast +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Mast +10.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Mast +10.0 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: James Martin 4 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: James Martin 4 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: James Martin 4 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #74 of 421