Scott Franklin wins in 96 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Scott Franklin +10.0.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Franklin +10.0; 80 in 100 fall between Franklin +17.4 and Franklin +2.8.
Clifford Scott Franklin is an American politician and businessman who has served in the United States House of Representatives since 2021. He represented Florida's 15th congressional district from 2021 to 2023, and has represented Florida's 18th district since 2023. He is a member of the Republican Party. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Curtis Gibson against Scott Franklin yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Gibson 4, Franklin 96.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+8.0 | roughly 16 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Franklin +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Franklin +10.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Franklin +10.0 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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