Kimberly Hardy
Democratic
Raised$376K
Cash on hand$25K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All North Carolina races
North Carolina District 7
Solid R
Kimberly Hardy
Democratic
4 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
David Rouzer
Republican · incumbent
96 in 100
David Rouzer wins in 96 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to David Rouzer +10.1.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Rouzer +10.1; 80 in 100 fall between Rouzer +17.3 and Rouzer +2.8.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
David RouzerIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1972)
David Cheston Rouzer is an American politician who is the U.S. representative for North Carolina's 7th congressional district. Previously he was a Republican member of the North Carolina General Assembly, representing Johnston County and Wayne County in the 12th district of the North Carolina Senate. Wikipedia
Raised$2.5M
Cash on hand$2.1M
Through 2026-09-30
Maad Abu-Ghazalah
Libertarian
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
No public polls have tested Kimberly Hardy against David Rouzer yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Hardy 4, Rouzer 96.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+7.0 | roughly 14 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Rouzer +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Rouzer +10.1 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Rouzer +10.1 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Kimberly Hardy 4 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Kimberly Hardy 4 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Kimberly Hardy 4 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #76 of 421