Tim Moore wins in 96 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Tim Moore +10.0.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Moore +10.0; 80 in 100 fall between Moore +17.3 and Moore +2.7.
Timothy Keith Moore is an American attorney and politician who has been the U.S. representative for North Carolina's 14th congressional district since 2025. He previously served as speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives from 2015 to 2025. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Lakesha Womack against Tim Moore yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Womack 4, Moore 96.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+8.0 | roughly 16 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Moore +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Moore +10.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Moore +10.0 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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