Kevin Burge
Democratic
Raised$317K
Cash on hand$80K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Texas races
Texas District 24
Solid R
Kevin Burge
Democratic
4 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Beth Van Duyne
Republican · incumbent
96 in 100
Beth Van Duyne wins in 96 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Beth Van Duyne +10.0.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Duyne +10.0; 80 in 100 fall between Duyne +17.3 and Duyne +2.8.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Beth Van DuyneIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1970)
Elizabeth Ann Van Duyne is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for Texas's 24th congressional district since 2021. A member of the Republican Party, she was mayor of Irving from 2011 to 2017. She was an official in the U.S. Wikipedia
Official website ↗Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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Polls
No public polls have tested Kevin Burge against Beth Van Duyne yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Burge 4, Duyne 96.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+8.0 | roughly 16 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Duyne +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Duyne +10.0 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Duyne +10.0 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Kevin Burge 4 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Kevin Burge 4 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Kevin Burge 4 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #78 of 421