Gus Bilirakis wins in 97 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Gus Bilirakis +10.3.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Bilirakis +10.3; 80 in 100 fall between Bilirakis +17.6 and Bilirakis +3.0.
Gus Michael Bilirakis is an American lawyer and politician serving as the U.S. representative for Florida's 12th congressional district since 2013. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Kimberly Overman against Gus Bilirakis yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Overman 3, Bilirakis 97.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+7.0 | roughly 14 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Bilirakis +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Bilirakis +10.3 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Bilirakis +10.3 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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