Lauren Boebert wins in 97 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Lauren Boebert +4.8 across 1 poll; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Lauren Boebert +9.5. Polls get 52% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Boebert +7.1; 80 in 100 fall between Boebert +12.1 and Boebert +2.2.
Lauren Opal Boebert is an American politician, businesswoman, and gun rights activist serving as the U.S. representative for Colorado's 4th congressional district beginning in 2025, having previously represented Colorado's 3rd congressional district from 2021 to 2025. Wikipedia
Eileen Laubacher is a retired two-star United States Navy rear admiral who served on the National Security Council under President Joe Biden. She is the Democratic nominee for Colorado's 4th congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Lauren Boebert. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Boebert +4.8 across 1 poll testing Eileen Laubacher against Lauren Boebert.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact ResearchC+ for Invest In Tomorrow Coalition | Sep 21–Sep 24 | 403 LV | Boebert +5.0 | Boebert +4.8 | 0.34 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Laubacher 3, Boebert 97.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 52% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Boebert +4.8 | ±7.8 sampling range; effective 1 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+9.0 | roughly 18 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Boebert +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Boebert +9.5 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Boebert +7.1 | ±4.0 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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