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U.S. House · All North Carolina races

North Carolina District 13

Solid R
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Paul Barringer
Democratic
3 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Brad Knott
Republican · incumbent
97 in 100

Brad Knott wins in 97 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Brad Knott +10.4.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Knott +10.4; 80 in 100 fall between Knott +17.7 and Knott +3.1.

Knott +30Knott +20Knott +10Barringer +10Barringer +20Barringer +30Tie

The candidates

Paul Barringer
Democratic
Raised
$1.2M
Cash on hand
$508K
Through 2026-09-30
No biography on file yet.
Brad KnottIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1986)

John Bradford Knott is an American attorney and politician. He is the member for the United States House of Representatives in North Carolina's 13th congressional district. Wikipedia

Raised
$1.6M
Cash on hand
$855K
Through 2026-09-30
Steven Swinton
Libertarian

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Paul Barringer against Brad Knott yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

Barringer +2 over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Barringer 3, Knott 97.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+8.0roughly 16 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyKnott +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateKnott +10.4±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastKnott +10.4±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Paul Barringer 3 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Paul Barringer 3 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Paul Barringer 3 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #81 of 421