Richard Hudson wins in 97 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Richard Hudson +10.4.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Hudson +10.5; 80 in 100 fall between Hudson +17.7 and Hudson +3.2.
Richard Lane Hudson Jr. is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for North Carolina's 9th congressional district since 2013. A member of the Republican Party, his district covers a large part of the southern Piedmont area from Concord to Spring Lake. Wikipedia
Richard Neece Ojeda II is an American politician and retired United States Army major who served in the West Virginia Senate representing the 7th district from January 2017 until January 2019. A member of the Democratic Party, he ran a brief campaign for President of the United States in the 2020 election. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Richard Ojeda against Richard Hudson yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Ojeda 3, Hudson 97.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+8.0 | roughly 16 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Hudson +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Hudson +10.4 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Hudson +10.4 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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