Leticia Gutierrez
Democratic
Raised$152K
Cash on hand$93K
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Texas races
Texas District 9
Solid R
Leticia Gutierrez
Democratic
3 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Alex Mealer
Republican
97 in 100
Alex Mealer wins in 97 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Alex Mealer +10.9.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Mealer +10.8; 80 in 100 fall between Mealer +18.1 and Mealer +3.6.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Alex Mealer
Republican
The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in Texas will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the thirty-eight U.S. representatives from the state of Texas, one from each of the state's thirty-eight congressional districts. Wikipedia
Raised$2.7M
Cash on hand$479K
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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Polls
No public polls have tested Leticia Gutierrez against Alex Mealer yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Gutierrez 3, Mealer 97.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+9.0 | roughly 18 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Mealer +10.9 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Mealer +10.9 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Leticia Gutierrez 3 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Leticia Gutierrez 3 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Leticia Gutierrez 3 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- New representative to be elected
House races, closest first · this is #83 of 421