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U.S. House · All Georgia races

Georgia District 5

Solid D
Compare
Nikema Williams
Democratic · incumbent
100 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
John Oscar Salvesen
Republican
0 in 100

Nikema Williams wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Nikema Williams +85.3.

Chance no one clears 50% and the race goes to a December runoff: 0 in 100 (rough estimate from the projected margin).

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Williams +85.3; 80 in 100 fall between Williams +78.0 and Williams +92.5.

Salvesen +30Salvesen +20Salvesen +10Williams +10Williams +20Williams +30Tie

The candidates

John Oscar Salvesen
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Nikema WilliamsIncumbent
Democratic
No biography on file yet.

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Nikema Williams against John Oscar Salvesen yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Williams 100, Salvesen 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+36.0roughly 72 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyWilliams +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateWilliams +85.3±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastWilliams +85.3±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Nikema Williams 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Nikema Williams 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Nikema Williams 100 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Georgia requires a majority: if no candidate tops 50%, the top two meet in a runoff.
  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #286 of 421