Kelly Esti
Democratic
U.S. House · All Georgia races
Georgia District 8
Solid R
Kelly Esti
Democratic
<1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Austin Scott
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100
Austin Scott wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Austin Scott +26.2.
Chance no one clears 50% and the race goes to a December runoff: 0 in 100 (rough estimate from the projected margin).
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Scott +26.2; 80 in 100 fall between Scott +33.5 and Scott +18.8.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Austin ScottIncumbent
Republican
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
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Polls
No public polls have tested Kelly Esti against Austin Scott yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Esti 0, Scott 100.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+15.0 | roughly 30 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbent’s track record | Scott +2.1 | In 2024 they ran 4.3 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10) |
| Incumbency | Scott +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Scott +26.2 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Scott +26.2 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Kelly Esti <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Kelly Esti <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Kelly Esti <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Georgia requires a majority: if no candidate tops 50%, the top two meet in a runoff.
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #223 of 421