Jonathan Chavez
Republican
U.S. House · All Georgia races
Georgia District 13
Solid D
Jasmine Clark
Democratic
100 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Jonathan Chavez
Republican
0 in 100
Jasmine Clark wins in 100 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Jasmine Clark +51.6.
Chance no one clears 50% and the race goes to a December runoff: 0 in 100 (rough estimate from the projected margin).
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Clark +51.6; 80 in 100 fall between Clark +44.4 and Clark +58.9.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Jasmine Clark
Democratic
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
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Polls
No public polls have tested Jasmine Clark against Jonathan Chavez yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Clark 100, Chavez 0.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+21.0 | roughly 42 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | Clark +51.6 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Clark +51.6 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Jasmine Clark 100 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals: Jasmine Clark 100 in 100 (Solid D)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Jasmine Clark 100 in 100 (Solid D)
Rules and notes
- Georgia requires a majority: if no candidate tops 50%, the top two meet in a runoff.
- Blair lost the initial nomination for the full term; later elected to complete David Scott's unexpired term.
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