David Dawson
Democratic
U.S. House · open seat · All Iowa races
Iowa District 4
Solid R
David Dawson
Democratic
<1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Chris McGowan
Republican
>99 in 100
Chris McGowan wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Chris McGowan +20.4.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin McGowan +20.3; 80 in 100 fall between McGowan +27.6 and McGowan +13.0.
The candidates
No biography on file yet.
Chris McGowan
Republican
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.
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Polls
No public polls have tested David Dawson against Chris McGowan yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Dawson 0, McGowan 100.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+15.0 | roughly 30 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | none | open seat or incumbent not on ballot |
| Fundamentals estimate | McGowan +20.4 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | McGowan +20.4 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: David Dawson <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: David Dawson <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: David Dawson <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent retiring to run for governor
House races, closest first · this is #167 of 421