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U.S. House · All Idaho races

Idaho District 2

Solid R
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Ellie Gilbreath
Democratic
<1 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Mike Simpson
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100

Mike Simpson wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Mike Simpson +20.4.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Simpson +20.4; 80 in 100 fall between Simpson +27.7 and Simpson +13.1.

Simpson +30Simpson +20Simpson +10Gilbreath +10Gilbreath +20Gilbreath +30Tie

The candidates

Ellie Gilbreath
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Mike SimpsonIncumbent
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Emre Houser
Independent
Tripp Hutchinson
Independent
Will Johanson
Libertarian

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Ellie Gilbreath against Mike Simpson yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Gilbreath 0, Simpson 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+13.0roughly 26 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record Simpson +0.4In 2024 they ran 0.7 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
IncumbencySimpson +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateSimpson +20.4±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastSimpson +20.4±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Ellie Gilbreath <1 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Ellie Gilbreath <1 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Ellie Gilbreath <1 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #166 of 421