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U.S. House · All New Jersey races

New Jersey District 9

Solid D
Compare
Nellie Pou
Democratic · incumbent
>99 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Rosie Pino
Republican
<1 in 100

Nellie Pou wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Nellie Pou +19.2.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Pou +19.1; 80 in 100 fall between Pou +11.9 and Pou +26.4.

Pino +30Pino +20Pino +10Pou +10Pou +20Pou +30Tie

The candidates

Rosie Pino
Republican
Raised
$539K
Cash on hand
$21K
Through 2026-09-30
No biography on file yet.
Nellie PouIncumbent
Democratic · American politician (born 1956)

Nelida Avila Pou is an American politician and business administrator serving as the U.S. representative for New Jersey's 9th congressional district since 2025. Wikipedia

Raised
$3.1M
Cash on hand
$1.6M
Through 2026-09-30
Terrisa Bukovinac
Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Nellie Pou against Rosie Pino yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Pou 100, Pino 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+2.0roughly 4 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyPou +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimatePou +19.2±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastPou +19.2±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Nellie Pou >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Nellie Pou >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Nellie Pou >99 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #165 of 421