Darin LaHoodIncumbent
Republican · American politician (born 1968)
Darin McKay LaHood is an American attorney and politician who has served as a U.S. representative from Illinois since 2015. Wikipedia
Raised$4.2M
Cash on hand$6.3M
Through 2026-09-30
U.S. House · All Illinois races
Illinois District 16
Solid R
Paul Nolley
Democratic
<1 in 100
chance of winning, out of 100
Darin LaHood
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100
Darin LaHood wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Darin LaHood +18.1.
Where the result could land
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin LaHood +18.1; 80 in 100 fall between LaHood +25.4 and LaHood +10.8.
The candidates
Official website ↗
Paul Nolley
Democratic
Raised$605K
Cash on hand$289K
Through 2026-09-30
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →
Polls
No public polls have tested Paul Nolley against Darin LaHood yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
Chance of winning over time
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Nolley <1, LaHood >99.
What’s driving the forecast
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+11.0 | roughly 22 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | LaHood +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | LaHood +18.1 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | LaHood +18.1 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
All three versions
- Polls only: Paul Nolley <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals: Paul Nolley <1 in 100 (Solid R)
- Polls + fundamentals + experts: Paul Nolley <1 in 100 (Solid R)
Rules and notes
- Incumbent renominated
House races, closest first · this is #153 of 421