Jake Ellzey wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Jake Ellzey +18.5.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Ellzey +18.5; 80 in 100 fall between Ellzey +25.8 and Ellzey +11.3.
John Kevin "Jake" Ellzey Sr. is an American politician and former military officer serving as the U.S. representative for Texas's 6th congressional district since 2021. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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No public polls have tested Danny Minton against Jake Ellzey yet.
No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Minton <1, Ellzey >99.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | — | no polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | R+11.0 | roughly 22 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Ellzey +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Ellzey +18.5 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Ellzey +18.5 | ±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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