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U.S. House · All Louisiana races

Louisiana District 1

Solid R
Compare
Lauren Jewett
Democratic
0 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Steve Scalise
Republican · incumbent
100 in 100

Steve Scalise wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Steve Scalise +34.0.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Scalise +34.1; 80 in 100 fall between Scalise +41.4 and Scalise +26.6.

Scalise +30Scalise +20Scalise +10Jewett +10Jewett +20Jewett +30Tie

The candidates

Lauren Jewett
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Steve ScaliseIncumbent
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Randall Arrington
Republican
Liddy Glass
Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Lauren Jewett against Steve Scalise yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Jewett 0, Scalise 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+20.0roughly 40 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyScalise +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateScalise +34.0±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastScalise +34.0±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Lauren Jewett 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Lauren Jewett 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Lauren Jewett 0 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Louisiana’s House races hold an all-party primary on Nov. 3 with a Dec. 12 runoff if no one tops 50%; the forecast is for which party ultimately holds the seat.
  • Incumbent running
  • Louisiana House: all-party primary on Nov. 3; runoff Dec. 12 if no one tops 50%.

House races, closest first · this is #314 of 421