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U.S. House · All Louisiana races

Louisiana District 4

Solid R
Compare
Democratic field
D
0 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Mike Johnson
Republican · incumbent
100 in 100

Mike Johnson wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Mike Johnson +28.0.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Johnson +28.0; 80 in 100 fall between Johnson +35.3 and Johnson +20.7.

Johnson +30Johnson +20Johnson +10field +10field +20field +30Tie

The candidates

Mike JohnsonIncumbent
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Conrad Cable
Democratic
Matt Gromlich
Democratic
Gordon Heslop
Republican
Mike Nichols
Republican

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Democratic field against Mike Johnson yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: field 0, Johnson 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+17.0roughly 34 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyJohnson +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateJohnson +28.0±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastJohnson +28.0±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Democratic field 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Democratic field 0 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Democratic field 0 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Louisiana’s House races hold an all-party primary on Nov. 3 with a Dec. 12 runoff if no one tops 50%; the forecast is for which party ultimately holds the seat.
  • Incumbent running
  • Louisiana House: all-party primary on Nov. 3; runoff Dec. 12 if no one tops 50%.

House races, closest first · this is #317 of 421