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U.S. House · All Minnesota races

Minnesota District 5

Solid D
Compare
Ilhan Omar
DFL · incumbent
100 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
John Nagel
Republican
0 in 100

Ilhan Omar wins in 100 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Ilhan Omar +70.4.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Omar +70.4; 80 in 100 fall between Omar +63.1 and Omar +77.6.

Nagel +30Nagel +20Nagel +10Omar +10Omar +20Omar +30Tie

The candidates

John Nagel
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Ilhan OmarIncumbent
DFL
No biography on file yet.
DeVelle Jackson
Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Ilhan Omar against John Nagel yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Omar 100, Nagel 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+32.0roughly 64 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record Nagel +6.9In 2024 they ran 13.8 pts more Republican than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
IncumbencyOmar +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateOmar +70.4±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastOmar +70.4±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Ilhan Omar 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Ilhan Omar 100 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Ilhan Omar 100 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #335 of 421