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U.S. House · All Mississippi races

Mississippi District 3

Solid R
Compare
Michael Chiaradio
Democratic
<1 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Michael Guest
Republican · incumbent
>99 in 100

Michael Guest wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Michael Guest +22.0.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Guest +22.0; 80 in 100 fall between Guest +29.3 and Guest +14.8.

Guest +30Guest +20Guest +10Chiaradio +10Chiaradio +20Chiaradio +30Tie

The candidates

Michael Chiaradio
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Michael GuestIncumbent
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Erik Kiehle
Libertarian

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Michael Chiaradio against Michael Guest yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Chiaradio 0, Guest 100.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) R+14.0roughly 28 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyGuest +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateGuest +22.0±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastGuest +22.0±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Michael Chiaradio <1 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Michael Chiaradio <1 in 100 (Solid R)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Michael Chiaradio <1 in 100 (Solid R)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #189 of 421