Maggie Goodlander wins in >99 of 100 simulations.
The polling average has Maggie Goodlander +19.8 across 3 polls; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Maggie Goodlander +18.6. Polls get 64% of the weight 15 days out.
Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Goodlander +19.4; 80 in 100 fall between Goodlander +14.6 and Goodlander +24.1.
Margaret Vivian Goodlander is an American politician, lawyer, and former naval officer who has served as the U.S. representative from New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district since 2025. A member of the Democratic Party, she is married to Jake Sullivan, former U.S. national security advisor. Wikipedia
Lily Tang Williams is an American activist, businesswoman, and perennial candidate who chaired the Colorado Libertarian Party from 2015 to 2016. She unsuccessfully ran for the U.S. Wikipedia
Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).
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The polling average stands at Goodlander +19.8 across 3 polls testing Maggie Goodlander against Lily Tang Williams.
Line: weighted average after adjustments; band: 95% range of the average; dots: individual polls after adjustments.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Adjusted | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New HampshireB+ | Sep 17–Sep 21 | 702 LV | Goodlander +21.0 | Goodlander +21.5 | 0.80 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey CenterB+ | Aug 17–Aug 18 | 701 LV | Goodlander +15.0 | Goodlander +16.0 | 0.56 |
| Saint AnselmB+ | Jun 24–Jun 25 | 1,614 RV | Goodlander +19.0 | Goodlander +21.6 | 0.45 |
How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.
Out of 100. Today: Goodlander 100, Williams 0.
The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 64% of the weight, 15 days out.
| Polling average (after adjustments) | Goodlander +19.8 | ±4.1 sampling range; effective 2.8 polls |
| Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) | D+2.0 | roughly 4 points of margin vs. the nation |
| National environment | D+9.6 | generic ballot + presidential approval |
| Incumbency | Goodlander +3.6 | incumbent’s side |
| Fundamentals estimate | Goodlander +18.6 | ±6 typical error |
| Expert ratings (average) | — | used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version |
| Forecast | Goodlander +19.4 | ±3.5 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day |
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