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U.S. House · All New Jersey races

New Jersey District 3

Solid D
Compare
Herb Conaway
Democratic · incumbent
>99 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Michael McGuire
Republican
<1 in 100

Herb Conaway wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Herb Conaway +23.3.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Conaway +23.3; 80 in 100 fall between Conaway +16.0 and Conaway +30.6.

McGuire +30McGuire +20McGuire +10Conaway +10Conaway +20Conaway +30Tie

The candidates

Herb ConawayIncumbent
Democratic
No biography on file yet.
Michael McGuire
Republican
No biography on file yet.
Ryan Kelly
Independent
Steven Welzer
Green

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata.

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Herb Conaway against Michael McGuire yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Conaway 100, McGuire 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+5.0roughly 10 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
IncumbencyConaway +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateConaway +23.3±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastConaway +23.3±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Herb Conaway >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Herb Conaway >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Herb Conaway >99 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #191 of 421