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U.S. House · All New Jersey races

New Jersey District 5

Solid D
Compare
Josh Gottheimer
Democratic · incumbent
>99 in 100
50–50chance of winning, out of 100
Sean Kirrane
Republican
<1 in 100

Josh Gottheimer wins in >99 of 100 simulations.

There are no qualifying public polls yet, so the forecast leans on fundamentals; partisan lean, the national environment and incumbency point to Josh Gottheimer +22.2.

Where the result could land

Every simulated outcome, grouped in 2-point steps. Projected margin Gottheimer +22.2; 80 in 100 fall between Gottheimer +14.9 and Gottheimer +29.4.

Kirrane +30Kirrane +20Kirrane +10Gottheimer +10Gottheimer +20Gottheimer +30Tie

The candidates

Josh GottheimerIncumbent
Democratic
Raised
$5.5M
Cash on hand
$13.4M
Through 2026-09-30
No biography on file yet.
Sean Kirrane
Republican
Raised
$99K
Cash on hand
$9K
Through 2026-09-30
No biography on file yet.
Adam Rueda
Independent

Ballot list and short bios from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA); websites from Wikidata; fundraising from the FEC (cycle-to-date, latest report).

What if this race flips? Try it in the map builder →

Polls

No public polls have tested Josh Gottheimer against Sean Kirrane yet.

No polls of this matchup yet, so there is no polling average. The forecast relies on fundamentals.

Chance of winning over time

How this race’s odds have moved as polls and the national environment changed.

No change over the past 3 months
020406080100Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1

Out of 100. Today: Gottheimer 100, Kirrane 0.

What’s driving the forecast

The model blends each estimate by how much to trust it right now. Polls get 0% of the weight, 15 days out.

Polling average (after adjustments)—no polls
Partisan lean (Cook PVI, 2026 lines) D+2.0roughly 4 points of margin vs. the nation
National environment D+9.6generic ballot + presidential approval
Incumbent’s track record Gottheimer +2.4In 2024 they ran 4.8 pts more Democratic than the state’s lean predicted; half carries over (max 10)
IncumbencyGottheimer +3.6incumbent’s side
Fundamentals estimateGottheimer +22.2±6 typical error
Expert ratings (average)—used only in the “+ Expert ratings” version
ForecastGottheimer +22.2±5.7 standard deviation, including 2.3 for movement before Election Day

All three versions

  • Polls only: Josh Gottheimer >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals: Josh Gottheimer >99 in 100 (Solid D)
  • Polls + fundamentals + experts: Josh Gottheimer >99 in 100 (Solid D)

Rules and notes

  • Incumbent renominated

House races, closest first · this is #192 of 421